Major Market Ranges For Week of Oct. 13, Crude Oil Bull Candle

10/11/2019 2:26 pm EST

Focus: MARKETS

Trevor Smith

Commodity Trading Advisor, www.trevorsmithfnp.com

Here are the predicted ranges in major markets for next week by Trevor Smith.

Crude oil is resisting lower lows, as illustrated by yesterday’s bullish-engulfing candlestick pattern (see chart below). While stronger volume around that candlestick make a stronger signal, I do see enough of a tail on that candle to conclude that markets rejected the lows with force in their higher close.

The ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF (UCO) shows a weekly-chart candlestick that is a red hammer low, indicating a possible buy signal when price reaches down to the halfway point of the hammer’s tail. Although sellers are present it is still a buy signal. Therefore, traders need to be long the crude oil, entering on a pullback.

In this closing week, all underlying symbols exceeded our option spread strike prices in the winning directions- some twice! Eight of 10 projected weekly ranges printed, with many being reversal zones.

Daily Crude Oil

Daily Crude Oil futures illustrating Thursday’s bull engulfing candlestick with understudy support (Williams%R, Chaikin Money Flow). Source: Think or Swim

Next Week’s Predicted Ranges

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3010-3030; Low Range 2965-2945 (outlier event= 3055 Sept. Monthly Camarilla resistance)

Buy 2995/3000 Weekly call spreads; Rationale: projected range midpoint is overhead; trade small size, as VIX is on supports and a market bear pullback could give energy for new-high attempts Aggressive traders could reverse position at the whole number (3000) buying put spreads if signs present.

Japanese Yen

High Range

Euro FX

High Range 1.116-1.112; Low Range: 1.106-1.103

Buy call spread near 1.1075/1.1 current price call spreads weekly expiration upon throwbacks from overhead moving-average resistance. Rationale: bullish higher time frames

Gold

High Range $1519-$1510; Low Range $1480-$1471

Sell $1490/1495 weekly put spreads on pullbacks. Rationale: Range midpoint is over current price in sideways-action week with some breakout character. I believe option market Delta on $1,500 strike is mispriced & over >58% touch prob.

Crude Oil

High Range $5635-$5327; Low Range $5326-$5220

Sell $5250/52 or $5250/53 weeklies or monthly expiration put spreads on any down moves. Rationale: Daily, Weekly chart candlestick patterns, sideways reversal low next week

Last Week’s Projected Ranges Versus Actuals As of midday, Friday Oct. 11

E-mini S&P 500

High Range 3015-2978; Low Range 2895-2875 (outlier event= 3055 Sept. Monthly Camarilla resistance)

Actual: 2984-2881

Buy Weekly and Monthly Call Spreads 2945/2950 strikes; Rationale: bull candlestick signals multiple time frames, range midpoint is 2945 fair value, unfulfilled 3012 retest overhead

Japanese Yen

High Range 9468-9420; Low Range 9351-9330  

Actual: 9417-9252

Sell 9375/9400 call spread, then Buy 9350/9375 call spread if price is under 9350 and reversal rally signals present. Rationale; daily chart inverted hammer sell for the week at next week’s midrange, bullish Oct. candles

Euro FX

High Range 1.110-1.106; Low Range 1.099-1.096

Actual: 1.111-1.099

Buy 1.1/1.1105 call spreads weekly, monthly on pullbacks. Rationale: Bullish weekly, 3-Day candlesticks; weekly range midpoint 1.103 and already holding above it

Gold

High Range $1539-$1529; Low Range $1494-$1484

Actual: $1522-$1483

Buy $1505/1510 weekly/monthly call spreads on pullbacks. Rationale: Bullish weekly chart candle, slightly overbought Daily chart consistent with prior weekly sell bars may throwback down the tail of weekly hammer.

Crude Oil

High Range $5491-$5398; Low Range $5175-$5075

Actual: $5487-$5138

Sell $5250/52 weekly put spread on down moves into next week’s lows. Rationale: Price is out of Bollinger Band value, sideways pivots mean narrow range, moving average supports, volatility rank

See More analysis from Trevor here

Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.

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