Bill Baruch, president and founder of Blue Line Futures, previews E-mini S&P, Gold, Crude, Forex and Treasury markets and today’s economic report calendar. Follow his reports Monday-Friday on MoneyShow.com and short Midday Markets video.
Bill Baruch’s Midday Market Minute short video for Oct. 30 here.
Is the stock selloff over?
FX Rundown for Oct. 29-30 here.
E-mini S&P (December)
Monday’s close: Settled at 2643.50, down 26.00.
Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks whipsawed in the ugliest of fashions Monday. The S&P (SPX) traded to a high of 2707 and then a low of 2603 before settling in the middle. Amazon (AMZN) ignored the early enthusiasm, call it systematic selling after failing to close above its 200-day moving average on Friday for the first time since March 2016. The tech behemoth led the way lower and shed as much as 9% before finishing down 6.33%.
The NQ was caught in its undertow and coughed up as much as 4.5% before finishing down 2.3%. Amazon may have soured the mood early but comments on trade out of the White House acted as the dagger. Bloomberg reported that the U.S. is ready to impose tariffs on the remaining $257 billion of Chinese imports if talks between President Trump and President Xi fail to yield anything in November. For a White House that has attempted to support equity markets during times of distress, this certainly took investors by surprise. President Trump confirmed the reports and added that he believes a “great deal” will be reached.
The focus will shift to earnings ahead of the bell and a beat from BP (BP) +4% helped start things off on the right foot. Also, due this morning are reports from Pfizer (PFE), GE (GE), Mastercard (MA), Coca-Cola (KO) and more. All eyes will be on Facebook (FB) after the bell.
The pulse of global equity markets this morning is very tame. While those from the U.S. have battled higher from Monday’s lows, benchmarks in Europe are only slightly lower after Q3 GDP was slower than expected. In fact, the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are both up more than 1% (Nikkei futures are up more than 2% after digesting Monday’s late losses). On the economic calendar we look to Case Shiller Home Price Index and Consumer Confidence.
Technicals: There is one technical indicator that we have held dear through every sharp correction this year. It gave us the confidence to be buyers amidst sharp drops in February, March, April and May. Monday certainly looked as if this technical indicator was going to be taken out. Overall, it is something very simple ...
Crude Oil (December)
Monday’s close: Settled at 67.04, down 0.55.
Fundamentals: Risk sentiment is questionable this morning on fresh international trade concerns after the White House said Monday it was ready to impose tariffs on all remaining Chinese goods in December if talks between President Trump and President Xi yielded nothing in November. The Chinese yuan (CNY) continues to weaken against the U.S. dollar (USD) and this is dragging commodity prices along with it. The market is also showing concerns for additional production coming from Saudi Arabia and Russia as the Iran sanctions kick in next week. However, we raise doubt to the level of production they can truly bring on. Inventories expectations will trickle out through today and API is due after the bell. As of now, analysts expect a sixth straight week of builds.
Technicals: Monday, we spoke of our more Neutral near-term approach due to ...
Gold (December)
Monday’s close: Settled at 1227.6, down 8.2.
Fundamentals: Gold is taking a jab to the chin this morning and we cannot say we are surprised. Monday, we went more Neutral Gold because of our near-term fears that it must consolidate a bit technically. Adding to the weakness is a fresh low in the Chinese yuan against the dollar and a weaker euro after Q3 GDP was slower than expected. Comments from the White House that they are ready to impose tariffs on all remaining Chinese goods has certainly weighed on the Asian appetite for Gold due to currency dynamics. Furthermore, despite a whipsaw session in U.S equity markets yesterday, volatility has subsided globally. While there seems to be less of a need for safe-havens right here, right now, we know this can quickly change. Case Shiller Home Price is out and Consumer Confidence is out.
Technicals: Gold is lower but that does not mean it is not long-term constructive. In fact, major three-star support comes in at ...
View a short video: Bill Baruch: Trading Futures. Gold, USD, yuan.
Recorded: TradersExpo Chicago July 24, 2018.
Duration: 4:34.
