This was quite an interesting week we just completed, states Avi Gilburt of ElliottWaveTrader.net.
Let’s start with a headline pointed out to me by one of the commenters to last week’s article:
TD Ameritrade news flash I received in my e-mail at the close of market today: "Stocks Made Record Highs in the Face of Tapering, Inflation, Supply Chain Issues, and Worker Shortages"
So many are so sure that any one of these issues should have been enough to send the market down in earnest. Yet, even when taken cumulatively, the market still continued to higher highs. Then on Thursday, we saw the GDP reported at well below expectations. So, what has the market done with this news? The market rallied over 1% since it was announced.
I do apologize that I requested to close the comment section on Seeking Alpha this week as I am traveling and am unable to monitor or respond to comments. But if it was open, I am quite sure that there would be some commenters doing their usual mental gymnastics to explain why it makes sense for the market to rally in the face of tapering, inflation, supply chain issues, worker shortages, and a miss on GDP.
But, if you are viewing markets from an intellectually honest perspective, then you would realize that it just doesn't matter.
This is a bull market with much higher levels to likely be seen in 2022. And, while many of you may still be trying to fight this market for whatever reason you believe, I am still looking for the next major rally to take us to my next target in the 4900-5163 region into 2022. But, I think we get at least one more sizable pullback before that rally begins in earnest.
Over the last year and a half, I have been pounding the table that the market has much higher to be seen, yet so many have been parroting the arguments above and telling me I just do not know what I am talking about. Well, I am quite used to it already.
So, if you find yourself falling into the camp of some of those I outline in the blog post, then you may need to reconsider your market perspective. For if you are not primarily focused on maintaining on the correct side of the market trend, then you are only fooling yourself and losing out on some tremendous opportunity that is being presented before us before a major bear market takes hold in the coming years.
For those that have been following my analysis this year, you may remember that I called for at least a 20% rally in 2021, with an ideal target of 4600SPX this year. And, when you consider that we started the year at 3750SPX, and have struck a high of 4608SPX this past week, I would say that we have done a good job this year. In fact, I even outlined my expectation for a rally to the 4440-4600SPX region earlier this year, to be followed by a pullback to the 4165-4270SPX region, thereafter to be followed by a rally through 4600SPX. And, with the low thus far being struck in the futures at the 4270SPX region, it seems the market is following our Elliott Wave playbook rather well.
As we were hitting those lows a few weeks ago, I outlined to the members of ElliottWaveTrader.net that there are many bottoming indications as we were hitting our support region in both price and technicals. So, I explained I was a buyer at the time since any further potential downside was dwarfed by the potential upside I was seeing as I was looking towards 2022.
In the meantime, I will note that the smaller degree structure is not entirely clear to me as we were hitting the highs on Friday. While the market is likely setting up to begin its next trending move to 4900-5163SPX as we look towards 2022, I need to see a pullback in the coming weeks which will set us up for such a rally.
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave analyst and founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live trading room featuring his analysis on the S&P 500, precious metals, oil & USD, plus a team of analysts covering a range of other markets.