Coming into the last Fed announcement in December I saw that the bulls had gotten ahead of themselves with some painful downside likely to follow, states Steve Reitmeister of Reitmeister Total Return.
This compelled me to add a 3.5% HIBS position that panned out quite well as stocks tumbled. I smell the same thing forming here coming into the February first Fed announcement as bulls are just not getting the memo about the "higher rates for longer" mantra that has been repeated again and again (including this past week).
So, with stocks flirting with resistance at the 200-day moving average (3,984) and right above it 4,000 I sense here is a good spot to add HIBS once again to the RTR portfolio. Buy 3.5% allocation to Direxion S&P 500 High Beta Bear 3X ETF (HIBS)
Note that stocks could head south before the Fed announcement just from too much exuberance to start the year that gets thwarted at key resistance levels (200-day moving average + 4,000 as a serious psychological hurdle). And then between now and the Fed announcement you have earnings season which, like last quarter, points to greater weakness ahead that could have stocks on the decline.
Long story short, there are a few good reasons in coming weeks to point out that downside risk is likely greater than upside...and thus adding this small HIBS position is a good way to carve out some extra market timing profits from this market.