A Simple Method for Market Timing
Market timing can be made complex or simple, says Greg Capra of Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc., and he has studied many methods and definitely found the simple approach the way to go.
Those studies were a quest for finding that method and what works for timing and what doesn't? What you'll find surprising is that the typical tools used by the majority do not work. I know you're interested in what does and I'll show you.
Before we review what to use, let's review some of the methods often talked about to determine market turns. Almost all of them will give a signal after a turn of some form has already happened. For example, the break of an uptrend trend line will signal a violation of the uptrend since prices have already moved lower. However, haven't you see uptrend lines broken that were followed by an almost immediate reversal back up in the direction of the trend? I have many times and found them inaccurate.
Let's think about the use of a trend line. An uptrend line is drawn by "connecting the dots" and is supposed to show you a support line that is projected into the future. If that line is violated, it signals the end of that uptrend. Why should that be the case though? Can you really locate significant reference points of support by drawing lines on a chart? How do you know you are connecting the right dots? And since there are different points that the line can be connected to, should you draw from all of them?