The S&P 500 and crude oil should trade in softer weekly ranges, reports Trevor Smith.
The S&P 500 and crude oil should trade in softer weekly ranges, in sideways behavior, and with likely-failing attempts to breakout. Ranges are setting up for breakouts while pivots are not supporting it. The euro FX and gold are similar, with gold being bearish for July options. Prices in most markets I track would simply have to travel too far and traders commit too much for far-away pricing to be likely; unless Monday-Tuesday economic or Fed news sparked outlier-event pricing. The Japanese yen is the most technically likely breakout candidate, because of multi-time frame trending pivots. Gold is in second place for a next-week breakout (downwards).
Trading reversals within S&P or crude oil ranges is one strategy for this week. If a large down move occurs in these markets near projected weekly lows, consider selling an iron condor or put spread. As of Friday morning, markets seem high, so, bearish option positions (long put spreads) is a strategy to consider.
Next Week’s Predicted Ranges (Potential Near-Target Trades Relative to Friday’s Midday-Close)
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3034-3021; Low Range 2988-2981
Long put spread 3010/3015 weekly (consider monthly)
Japanese Yen
High Range 9370-9342; Low Range 9260-9232
Short put spread 9275/9300 weekly and/or join Monday-Tuesday breakouts beyond Thu.-Fri. range
Euro FX
High Range 1.138-1.134; Low Range: 1.127-1.122
Buy 1130/32 call spread weekly
Gold
High Range $1430-$1418; Low Range $1390-$1376
Sell 1410/1415 call spread weekly/monthly, hold last week’s: Sell 1390/95 call spread monthly
Crude Oil
High Range $6237-$6176; Low Range $5899-$5850
Buy 6050/6100 put spread weekly
Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges (Friday, Jul 12); 8/10 touched ranges; 4/5 option trades’ underlying symbols touched chosen strikes in winning direction but do not necessarily reflect winning trades. Actual wins/losses vary due to option pricing complexities/nuances.
E-mini S&P 500
High Range 3010-2996; Low Range 2860-2848
Long put spread 2870/75 weekly ERROR: typographical mistake, should’ve been 2960-2948 low range and 2970/75 strikes which were successful making 5/5 option trades winners, but 2960 was meant not 2860 that was typed/published and a failing trade had it been placed expecting a 100-point S&P drop!
Actual:3007-2963
Japanese Yen
High Range 9340-9296; Low Range 9228-9203
Short call spread 9250/9300 monthly
Actual: 9315-9221
Euro FX
High Range 1.133-1.129; Low Range: 1.125-1.122
Buy 1125/30put spread monthly, maybe after coming bounce
Actual: 1.134-1.125
Gold
High Range $1417-$1408; Low Range $1381-$1364
Sell 1390/95 call spread monthly
Actual: $1429-$1387
Crude Oil
High Range $5912-$5841; Low Range $5575-$5500
Long $5700/5750 call spread weekly
Actual: $6094-$5729
Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.
