Next week’s market ranges from Trevor Smith.
All five markets show trending breakout pivot/range math for the week, but don’t trade thin-volume markets in Holidays.
In this closing week, five of 10 projected weekly ranges printed as of late Thursday night with other range projections close, and all option spread trades had underlying symbols trade beyond chosen strikes in winning directions.
Next Week’s Predicted Ranges
E-mini S&P 500
High Range: 3245-3220; Low Range 3190-3174 (3060 outlier)
Japanese Yen
High Range 9229-9213; Low Range 9168-9152
Euro FX
High Range 1.125-1.119; Low Range 1.113-1.110
Gold
High Range $1499-$1490; Low Range -$1477-$1469
Crude Oil
High Range $6214-$6102; Low Range —$6012-$5948
Sell weekly call spread $60.50/$61 based on momentum, four-hour chart signals, if one must force a trade.
(Note: This article is published mid-day on Fridays and focuses on weekly options expiring the following Friday but may include monthly options or 2=two-week calendar/diagonal option spreads at times.
Last Week’s Predicted-Versus-Actual Ranges:
E-mini S&P 500
High Range: 3220-3204; Low Range 3170-3156 (3060 outlier)
Actual: 3213-3159
Buy weekly expiration 3195/3190 put spread to 3175 as weekly pivot levels target
Japanese Yen
High Range 9240-9214; Low Range 9142-9114
Actual: 9210-9167
Buy 9200/9150 weekly expiration put spread on 9140 low retest scalping any available profit as the coming reversal toward 9220 is strong; trade small amidst Japan monetary policy/currency discussions.
Euro FX
High Range 1.128-1.125; Low Range: 1.121-1.118
Actual: 1.126-1.117
Sell weekly expiration call spread 1122/25 toward 1120 weekly pivot, trading lightly in size due to weekly chart breakout >20-week & 50-week moving average supports. Consider bullish positioning into January-February options
Gold
High Range $1488-$1480; Low Range $1466-$1456
Actual: $1465-$1485
Sell weekly expiration call spread $1475/80 strikes when price is between strikes and toward $1376 weekly pivot; also, buy $1379/75 call spread for high retest if price is between strikes and large drop has not occurred.
Crude Oil
High Range: $6153-$6037; Low Range $5834-$5771
Actual: $61.40-$59.27
Sell $59/5950 weekly expiration call spread, as range midpoint & weekly pivot below Thu. price
Day Traders’ Statistics & Projections- Last Week’s Predicted Versus Actuals:
E-mini S&P 500
Average Daily Range (ADR) (for: SPX): $17.27; Next Week Projected Average Daily Range $1691
Actual: $17.11 Wed.
Gap Fill Probability:56%; Gap Down Reversal Probability: 63%; Thursday holds highest gains, least losses, most up days (Mon/Tue are the reverse) for the past six months’ data set.
Actual: Tuesday bearishly filled its gap down to Monday’s close. Wednesday’s gap down reversal filled its gap. Thursday new highs.
Japanese Yen
Average Daily Range: 0.42%; Next Week Projected Average Daily Range: 0.46%
Actual: 0.42% Wed.
Euro FX
Average Daily Range 0.39%; Next Week Projected Average Daily Range: 0.36%
Actual: 0.37% Wed.
Gap Fill Probability (24-hour data): 87%; Gap up Reversals: 72%; Projected Gap Fill Probability: 84%
Actual: Monday gap up reversed down to Fri close; Actual Gap Fill Probability: 83% Wed.
Gold
Average Daily Range 0.99%, $14.64; Projected $14.99; Mondays/Fridays hold most down days, highest losses; Tuesday holds highest maximum gains, most up days, and least losses.
Actual: $13.94 (narrowed, instead of widened); Actual: Tuesday’s high was higher than Monday’s who’s low was lower than Tuesday.
Gap Fill Probability (24-hour data): 83%
Crude Oil
Average Daily Range $1.60; Next Week Projected Average Daily Range: $1.51
Actual: $1.51 Wed.
Gap Fill Probability (24-hour data): 93%; Gap Down Reversal Probability: 60%; Monday holds highest total gains with the least total losses, although Monday shares equal up-down day ratios.
Actual: Monday printed higher highs than Friday, with widest up move as of Wed. Wednesday gap down reversed/rallied up/over Tuesday’s regular-trading hours close.
See More analysis from Trevor here
Note: Nothing herein shall be construed to be specific financial advice. While reflecting my best good-faith efforts to forecast markets, no guarantees of accuracy are made from my range statistics, aggregate statistics, frequentist interpretations, and pivot math from hand calculations. I am a registered newsletter CTA, and all required disclaimers apply. Trade at your own risk with money you could discard/not miss.
