U.S. benchmarks are tethered to unchanged ahead of a deluge of data, writes Bill Baruch, President of BlueLineFutures.com, breaks down moves in major markets.

E-mini S&P (ESM)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2900.50, down 11.00

Fundamentals: U.S benchmarks are tethered to unchanged ahead of a deluge of data. Unchanged for the S&P 500 is nearly 1% from yesterday’s swing high and although the NQ managed to hold green after tapping a new all-time high, equity markets finished broadly sluggish. Healthcare dragged on the S&P as the XLV lost 2.88%. This morning, we look to Retail Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing and Jobless Claims all at 7:30 am CT. U.S Flash PMIs are due at 8:45 am CT and follow weaker than expected Eurozone reads that included another contraction in Manufacturing. Today’s session will be pivotal on a number of fronts but even more so given that markets are closed for Good Friday tomorrow. First, is global growth bottoming? We maintain the belief that good economic data is supportive to this market while bad data will impact it negatively. This is because there is a 54.3% probability the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged this year with the remaining piece of that pie being a cut; we could see a streak of better data before those probabilities again favor tightening. Secondly, politics domestically and globally are back in the mix. A redacted version of the Mueller report is due out today and North Korea has reportedly test-fired a new tactical guided weapon.

Technicals: The S&P failed at our major three-star resistance for the second session in a row and shred through two levels of strong support to neutralize the immediate strength of this uptrend.

Crude Oil (CLM)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at $63.87, down 0.32

Fundamentals: The June contract is now front month and despite early strength yesterday, the bulls were left disappointed once again as crude oil could not take out last Tuesday’s high. The official EIA data was not as bullish as expectations and this gave reason for price action to work itself in. However, production in the lower 48 states did drop by 100,000 barrels-per-day, which certainly helped keep selling in check. This comes as the Baker Hughes Rig Count slipped to the lowest level in a year before increasing over the last two weeks; the report is due at noon CT today. Chinese GDP and Industrial Production invigorated the rhetoric that global growth is bottoming, but Eurozone Flash PMIs were disappointing again this morning with a contraction in Manufacturing worse than expected. U.S Retail Sales was stronger than expected this morning, but Philly Fed Manufacturing missed. We look to U.S Flash PMIs at 8:45 am CT to get a continued pulse on that narrative. For Crude in the immediate-term, regardless of the data, traders do not want to underestimate the long weekend ahead with the North Korea missile test in the headlines coupled with violence in Libya adding to further disruptions in supply. Additionally, there are reports from Bloomberg that Libya plans to trim production in May. The OPEC meeting, concluding today, as promised did not give any definitive headlines on production.

Technicals: The overall uptrend in crude remains strong. The most interesting thing yesterday was that the June contract traded out to a new high by one cent, the second higher high since April 9.

Gold (GCM)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at $1,276.8, down 0.4

Fundamentals: Gold continues to hold ground below a crucial level of support which signals that the bull-camp has not thrown in the towel. This stability comes despite Dollar strength on weaker than expected Eurozone PMIs, including another contraction in Manufacturing, and a better number in the U.S on both Retail Sales and weekly Initial Jobless Claims. With the ongoing questioning of global growth, and recent ISM misses, we find the U.S Flash PMIs more important today than typically otherwise. First, Philly Fed Manufacturing missed this morning and NY Empire State Manufacturing missed earlier this week. These results will be crucial for Gold at 8:45 am CT as it looks to close out the short week. Some slight weakness from elevated levels in equity markets coupled with North Korea testing a new tactical guided weapon have worked to keep the bulls interested in Gold and have deterred further technical selling by the bears at this lower level.
Technicals: Price action drifted to a new swing low but again has not fallen apart.

Bill Baruch provides technical levels on all markets throughout the week at BlueLineFutures.com